Ukraine and US Unable to Conclude Deal on Rare Earth Minerals
On Friday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with US President Donald Trump in Washington to sign an agreement granting the US access to Ukraine’s rare earth mineral deposits. However, the meeting took an unexpected turn, ending in a heated exchange between Zelensky, Trump, and Vice President JD Vance. Following Zelensky’s early departure, the White House announced that no agreement had been signed.
Zelensky had earlier conveyed hope that this “initial” agreement might lead to enhanced collaboration. Yet, he acknowledged that Ukraine still hadn’t obtained any security assurances from the US—a crucial point for him. Trump contended that the agreement could enable American taxpayers to “recover their funds” from the aid given to Ukraine during the conflict, but emphasized that Europe should assume the main role in ensuring Kyiv’s security.
What Are the Terms of the Agreement?
On Wednesday, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal of Ukraine declared that Kyiv and Washington had completed a draft version of the agreement, which was made public on Friday morning. The arrangement proposed the establishment of an “investment fund” aimed at aiding Ukraine’s rebuilding initiatives.
Shmyhal stated that both nations would manage the fund on “equal terms.” Under the agreement, Ukraine would allocate 50% of its future revenue from state-owned mineral resources, oil, and gas to the fund. The proceeds would then be invested in initiatives aimed at enhancing Ukraine’s security, stability, and economic growth.
The US, for its part, committed to a sustained financial investment aimed at fostering stability and prosperity in Ukraine, in line with US law. The agreement also specified that the US would hold the largest share of the fund allowed by American rules.
Disagreements Over Mineral Rights and Financial Terms
Tensions between Trump and Zelensky appear to have escalated over the specific terms of the minerals deal. Initially, the US sought a $500 billion claim on Ukraine’s mineral wealth, a demand that Zelensky rejected. Reports indicate that this request was later withdrawn.
Tymofiy Mylovanov, who previously served as a Ukrainian minister and now leads the Kyiv School of Economics, stated that Washington’s original proposal threatened Ukraine’s sovereignty and risked economic downfall. However, he observed that the US has adjusted its stance, presenting a fairer agreement centered on joint ownership, without making claims on past assistance. He believes this revised approach could eventually advantage Ukraine.
Trump has highlighted the financial perspective, mentioning on Tuesday that the US has given $300 billion to $350 billion in aid to Ukraine, suggesting that a minerals agreement might help reclaim these funds. Nonetheless, the Kiel Institute, a German research organization, estimates that the real US assistance totals $119 billion.
Are Security Assurances Part of the Agreement?
An important issue for Zelensky has been the insertion of clear security assurances from the US. On Wednesday, he confirmed that these guarantees had not been obtained.
“I wanted a clause on security guarantees for Ukraine because it is crucial,” Zelensky stated.
In response to queries about potentially walking away if security assurances weren’t included, he answered: “I seek a NATO pathway or an equivalent solution. Without security guarantees, a ceasefire won’t be feasible, and nothing will operate effectively.”
Despite the lack of direct security commitments, the agreement includes language indicating US support for Ukraine’s pursuit of security guarantees to achieve lasting peace.
Zelensky insisted that Ukraine would not complete the agreement until he and Trump arrived at a consensus regarding security assurances and figured out how to incorporate them into the initial deal. On the other hand, Trump minimized the notion of direct US security guarantees, asserting that Europe should now assume those duties. He further mentioned that having American workers in Ukraine would provide “automatic security.”
Zelensky initially proposed the idea of a minerals agreement as a way to give the US a concrete reason to keep backing Ukraine. Trump has implied that, in return for access to minerals, Ukraine would obtain the “right to continue fighting,” with the US continuing to provide military gear and ammunition “until an agreement with Russia is achieved.”
The US president has additionally asserted that Russia is willing to permit European peacekeepers in Ukraine. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has rejected this option.
When Will the Agreement Be Signed?
Trump initially announced that the agreement would be finalized during Friday’s White House meeting. Although Ukrainian Prime Minister Shmyhal verified that the final draft of the agreement was ready, Zelensky’s adviser, Mykhaylo Podolyak, explained that only a framework agreement was meant to be signed.
However, no agreement was signed. Instead, the meeting escalated into a confrontation between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office. At one point, an angry Trump accused Zelensky of being insufficiently grateful for US assistance and warned that he was “gambling with World War Three.”
“You have to finalize a deal, or we’re withdrawing,” Trump allegedly warned Zelensky. “You lack the leverage.”
Zelensky countered by asserting that there could be “no compromises” with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Shortly after and earlier than planned, Zelensky departed from the White House. Subsequently, the White House declared that the agreement was not completed, with Trump personally calling off the signing event.
Trump later posted on Truth Social, accusing Zelensky of having “disrespected the US in its cherished Oval Office” and stating: “He can come back when he is ready for peace.”
Currently, it remains uncertain whether the agreement will be signed or when it might occur.
Ukraine’s Rich Mineral Resources
Kyiv estimates that Ukraine holds around 5% of the world’s “critical raw materials.” This includes approximately 19 million metric tons of confirmed graphite reserves, placing Ukraine among the top five global suppliers of this mineral, which is crucial for electric vehicle battery production.
Additionally, Ukraine has significant deposits of titanium and lithium. The country also claims to hold substantial reserves of rare earth elements—17 minerals essential for military technology, wind turbines, and electronic devices—though some experts dispute the exact scale of these reserves.
Complicating matters further, some of Ukraine’s mineral-rich territories are currently under Russian control. According to Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko, mineral deposits worth an estimated $350 billion remain in Russian-occupied areas.
An additional challenge to extracting minerals is the extensive presence of unexploded landmines. Experts estimate that about 25% of Ukraine’s territory is affected, especially in the war-ravaged eastern areas.
Time is another concern. Even if the agreement is completed, it might be years before the extraction and export of these resources produce measurable economic gains.
“These resources are not stored in a warehouse ready for dispatch—they need to be developed,” explained Mylovanov. “Should the US invest, it could eventually prove advantageous for everyone involved.”
How Has Russia Reacted?
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not yet made any remarks regarding the reported specifics of the US-Ukraine agreement. However, on Monday, he informed Russian state television that Moscow is ready to “offer” mineral resources to American firms for joint ventures, which includes mining in Russia’s “new territories”—referring to the occupied regions of eastern Ukraine.
Putin downplayed the potential US-Ukraine agreement as inconsequential, asserting that Russia “certainly possesses, I want to stress, far more of these resources than Ukraine.”
“As for the new territories, we are ready to attract foreign partners to develop these regions, which have returned to the Russian Federation,” he added.
Meanwhile, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov suggested on Tuesday that the situation remains fluid: “Whether [Ukraine and the US] will sign this agreement or something else, we’ll see. There have been no official statements on this matter yet.”
